SWR as a Funtion of PE10
This SWR vs PE10 analysis uses the data collected and posted by JWR at (JWR NoFeeBoard Study). Basic analysis of SWR as a function PE10 is presented on intercst’s board at
50/50 Portfolio Analysis
and
80/20 Portfolio Analysis

The raw data is the result of computing safe withdrawal rate for a 30 year retirement starting in each year from 1921 to 1980 using FIRECalc (FIRECalc Historical Simulator) along with the standard unit retiree assumptions. The resulting SWR for each year is then associated with the PE10 value of the initial year in retirement.

The plotted results (SWR vs PE10) indicate that using an initial withdrawal rate of approximately 4% and adjusting for inflation would have survived at least 30 years (assuming inflation adjusted spending model and 0.2% expense ratio) for any retiree who started their retirement since 1921 regardless of PE10 value when the retirement started. In addition, the SWR-PE10 analysis indicates that SWR has been essentially independent of PE10 value for high values of PE10. In the case of a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio, the historical SWR is shown to be ~4% and independent of PE10 for values of PE10 greater than 13. In the case of an 80/20 portfolio, the SWR has been ~4% becoming independent of PE10 for values of PE10 greater than 16.

Significance of PE10 <13 and PE10<16
For PE10 values less than 13 and 16 respectively, the historical record appears to exhibit a dependence of SWR on PE10. There are several reasons why one might choose to ignore this dependence and continue to use the guaranteed safe initial withdrawal rate of 4%. Specifically, those reasons include:

1) Shiller’s data shows that PE10 has been above 13 since March 1986 and above 16 since March 1987. So, the historical data of JWR’s study indicate that PE10 values have had no impact on the SWR of anyone retiring during the past two decades or of those due to retire soon.

Wow. It's been over 6 months since I entered anything here. It's interesting what I was thinking about M* and a hocus banning back in August. I didn't make a lot of predictions in my previous blog entry, but reading it today in light of what eventually happened at M*, it seems pretty consistent.

So now you've got to wonder what happens next, and I haven't got a clue. I can't imagine hocus changing his spots (yellow spots). I have to believe that he still sees himself as a lonely, self-riteous martyr telling the truth but being stymied by the evil Goons. Yet I don't see where else he can go to deliver this delusional message. I keep expecting to hear about a late night hocus infomercial on cable access channels. I might break down and invest in cable if he does that.

Well . . . I think it's fair to say that the Dragon din't win. hocus is making a growing number of M* posters frustrated and angry. Some people may see this as yet another failure, but I think hocus has 'em right where he want 'em. They haven't banned him, so he still has free reign over there. If the past is any indicator of the future, his next efforts will be to try to divide and disrupt. He will begin to pit M* posters against each other. While some M* posters have figured out that hocus is disrupting normal discussion and destroying their board, others have not yet reached that conclusion. The more casual reader does not understand why some posters have become angry. If you haven't followed closely or tried to carry on a reasonable discourse, then you don't understand the frustration of others who have.

Although some M* posters have figured out that hocus is slow poison, many others have not. hocus will begin to exploit this gap in understanding. He will start using posts of one poster to argue against the posts of another. He will imply that posters are criticizing each other rather than criticizing him. Sometimes he will be successful at creating bad feelings between posters. Other times he will simply succeed at making the M* board experience unpleasant enough that people will begin to post less or leave. I am convinced that the only solution is to ban him . . . or to treat him like a green and purple tree frog. Unfortunately, I fear that the large number of posters at M* results in a long time constant. Their board may be seriously damaged before they figure out they have to ban him. I hope they figure it out before it's too late.

When I was a young, naïve graduate student, my dissertation advisor had a poster on his wall that showed a dragon picking his fangs and gazing at a pile of charred and rumpled armor. The caption read, “Sometimes the dragon wins.” My advisor really liked that poster, but I always found it a little offensive. I didn’t think the world should accept this kind of injustice. Like I said, I was young and naïve.

After I left the protective environment of the University and entered the workforce, I began to see that the victories of the dragons were not that rare. At first I would say things like, “That will eventually catch up to them”, or “They’ll pay for that someday”. But eventually I came to realize, “Sometimes the dragon wins.”

I’ve noticed that money and persistence can sometimes trump reason and truth. The dragon wins. Charisma often beats substance. The dragon wins. Passion hammers logic and the dragon wins.

So sometimes I wonder if hocus might actually succeed in accomplishing whatever it is he is trying to accomplish. This week he has managed to make himself the center of attention over on M*. His message is without truth, reason, substance or logic; but he is the center of attention. Money has bought him some sort of pseudo-expert status through quotes and press releases in national media outlets. Some posters seem to admire/respect his persistence and passion. Can he leverage this into true power and influence? While it seems unlikely, I’ve seen unlikely charlatans succeed in the past.

By next week, hocus will probably be alienating even his current allies at M*. He will soon go into manic, paranoid mode and make everyone distance themselves from him. It will make me feel a little better when that happens and St. George triumphs over the dragon.

I first began to really focus on retirement planning just over 10 years ago. Somehow, around that time I managed to navigate my way to TMF discussion boards. That was my first experience with retirement focused discussion boards. After TMF betrayed us and began to embrace the dark side, I looked for other discussion boards. I participated in an early intrcst board, Dory’s board, NFB, raddr’s board and a few others. Initially, I enjoyed participating on these boards because I was learning so much. Gradually, I became a contributor and gained satisfaction from being able to answer questions from others who were just starting out. Eventually, I initiated my own research using various tools and shared the results with other serious ERs.

Today, I find myself losing interest in all of the ER boards with the exception of our hocus virtual containment facility. One by one I have quit posting at each of the other boards. I have even lost interest in reading the posts of others on these boards. I feel betrayed by TMF and refuse to pay them in their hypocritical quest for other’s money. NFB is gone. Raddr’s board seems full of people lost in mathematical minutia without the common sense to see the limits of their assumptions. They are also very cliquish.

Yet, I still come back to get a dose of really great entertainment at the hocomania board every chance I get. That may say something bad about me, but darn it, I am truly entertained by what that slimey green and purple tree frog does. Hocomania has true staying power.

I haven't posted my general feelings about hocomania for several weeks. I spent the first two weeks in May doing some volunteer archaeology work in remote sites in Southern Illinois and New Mexico. Separation from the internet made hocomania seem fairly irrelevant to me. When I first got back from those trips, I just couldn't build up any interest in his pathetic lies and arrogant posturing. But he is so AWC (arrogant without cause) and such a passive aggressive pest, that eventually I became disgusted enough to post again. It is difficult to understand how anyone can be so deluded and pathetic. But he is often deluded and pathetic with just enough control to mislead and naive beginner. That is what makes him so irritating. Fortunately for me, I am leaving tomorrow for two back-to-back trips that will keep me busy and divert my attention from hocomania again. This "reset" will probably keep me from feeling like posting another blob entry for another month.

It's Spring and that is a busy time for archaeology field work. That's one of my principle interests since retiring from corporate America and a career in engineering. I spent last week doing archaeology survey in Angeles National Forest (Southern California). Next week I'll be doing excavations of some Late Woodland/Missisipian archaeology sites in Shawnee National Forest (Southern Illinois) and the week after that I'll be mapping Gallina sites in Santa Fe National Forest (New Mexico). This week I'm very busy trying to take care of a leak in my neighborhood's irrigation system, get the lawn mowed, and getting ready for two weeks of camping.

I'm beginning to think that the 7 stages of hocomania do not adequately describe this illness. There are at least two aspects of hocomania that I think need further investigation: 1) concurent stages on different boards and 2) additional dimensions of the illness .

The stages capture hocus behavior in the past when he emerged on one internet board at a time, progressed through the stages and was banned. But if hocus becomes active on multiple boards at the same time, it may be possible for him to be in two different phases at the same time. This is further complicated by the fact that he is never banned from the Hocomania Board.

After more than a year, this hocomania life cycle still seems to hold up pretty well, but there is room for refinement as we continue to learn more with each passing hocolarious day.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?board=HOCO;action=display;num=1107703269

. . . Over a period of time on these boards, you can observe hocus' behavior over and over again.

1) He writes passionate descriptions of how to come to grips with the personal aspects of life-money balance and begins to get some accolades from a few readers. Many of these posts are inspiring to some readers and lead them to believe that hocus might hold useful knowledge or valuable wisdom.

It's been mostly hilarious today.

Over the past several weeks, we are seeing a surprising upswing in posters interested in researching hocus and his delusions. I'm guessing that hocus' polution of the M* boards are bringing people in to try to understand what they are witnessing over there.

The regular hocusologists are increasingly diligent in their investigations of the maniac. Massive amounts of data are being catalogued and analyzed. The process of accurately quantifying various behaviors is well underway.

Hocus seems to just keep repeating his delusional cycles. The data being tabulated documents this fact and will probably help refine and improve the existing observations concerning the cycles.