Comment on "While Most Find It (EMT) Discredited…It's the Best Assumption Framework We Have" by John Wa
Michael Kitces brings up an important question: what options are available to the financial planner? I believe there are several.
In terms of straight Valuation Informed Indexing, I believe that Benjamin Graham’s 25%-75% stock-bond allocation satisfies the need to avoid regret (and the need to avoid getting the financial planner fired).
Within each stock and bond allocation is the selection of which securities to purchase. Our models are quite limited. There are many alternatives to the S&P500 and TIPS. We cannot address them with the same level of statistical confidence, but they can make a lot of sense. For example, today’s REITS have been around only a couple of decades. (There was another version earlier with a bad reputation). They provide a high income stream.
There are also alternatives. For retirees, as opposed to those still in accumulation, a focus on the income stream in spite of the risk of a declining portfolio balance often makes sense. Remember, a traditional annuity leaves you with a balance of zero. Alternatives leave something for your heirs.
Have fun.
John Walter Russell
